Expected DA from January, 2013

Expected DA from January, 2013 will be 80% or 81% after October, 2012 CPI-IW index

Expectation of future Dearness Allowance from January, 2013 on the basis of 2 points jump in CPI-IW for the month of October, 2012 giving 50-50 expectation for DA  80% or 81%  means an increase of 8% or 9% as the Dearness Allowance has been announced 72% from July, 2013.  AllIndia Consumer Price Index Number [http://labourbureau.nic.in/indtab.html] for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) on base 2001=100 for October, 2012 showing increase in 1 point and stood at 217 (Two hundred and seventeen).  The different expectations of DA from January, 2013 are illustrated below:- 

Expectation-1
If it is expected only 1 point increase in this index for coming two months the Dearness Allowance for Central Government Employee will confirm 80% in January, 2013: 

Dearness Allowance = (Avg of AICPI for the past 12 months - 115.76)*100/115.76

Month	Base Year 2001 = 100	Total of 12 Months	Twelve monthly Average	% increase over 115.76 for   DA	DA announced or  will be announced
Jul-12	212	2414	201.17	73.78%	72%
Aug-12	214	2434	202.83	75.22%	80%
Sep-12	215	2452	204.33	76.51%
Oct-12	217	2471	205.92	77.88%
Nov-12	218	2490	207.50	79.25%
Dec-12	219	2512	209.33	80.83%
Jan-13	Expected DA from January 2013

Expectation-2

If  2 point increase in this index for any of coming two month and 1 point increase in other, the Dearness Allowance for Central Government Employee also will not exceed 80% in January, 2013:-

Month	Base Year 2001 = 100	Total of 12 Months	Twelve monthly Average	% increase over 115.76 for   DA	DA announced or  will be announced
Jul-12	212	2414	201.17	73.78%	72%
Aug-12	214	2434	202.83	75.22%	80%
Sep-12	215	2452	204.33	76.51%
Oct-12	217	2471	205.92	77.88%
Nov-12	219	2491	207.58	79.32%
Dec-12	220	2514	209.50	80.98%
Jan-13	Expected DA from January 2013

Month	Base Year 2001 = 100	Total of 12 Months	Twelve monthly Average	% increase over 115.76 for   DA	DA announced or  will be announced
Jul-12	212	2414	201.17	73.78%	72%
Aug-12	214	2434	202.83	75.22%	80%
Sep-12	215	2452	204.33	76.51%
Oct-12	217	2471	205.92	77.88%
Nov-12	218	2490	207.50	79.25%
Dec-12	220	2513	209.42	80.91%
Jan-13	Expected DA from January 2013

Expectation - 3

If we expect 2 point increase in this index for coming two month, the Dearness Allowance for Central Government Employee will be approximatily 81% in January, 2013:-

Dearness Allowance = (Avg of AICPI for the past 12 months - 115.76)*100/115.76

Month	Base Year 2001 = 100	Total of 12 Months	Twelve monthly Average	% increase over 115.76 for   DA	DA announced or  will be announced
Jul-12	212	2414	201.17	73.78%	72%
Aug-12	214	2434	202.83	75.22%	81%
Sep-12	215	2452	204.33	76.51%
Oct-12	217	2471	205.92	77.88%
Nov-12	219	2491	207.58	79.32%
Dec-12	221	2515	209.58	81.05%
Jan-13	Expected DA from January 2013

Expectation - 4

In this last expectation we check that in which situation the increase in DA from Jan-2013 will cross 9%.   For that an unexpected jump of 10 months for next month or 7 point jump of coming both months (Nov & Dec) will give 10% increase and this expectation is very much unexpected.  See below :

Dearness Allowance = (Avg of AICPI for the past 12 months - 115.76)*100/115.76

Month	Base Year 2001 = 100	Total of 12 Months	Twelve monthly Average	% increase over 115.76 for   DA	DA announced or  will be announced
Jul-12	212	2414	201.17	73.78%	72%
Aug-12	214	2434	202.83	75.22%	82%
Sep-12	215	2452	204.33	76.51%
Oct-12	217	2471	205.92	77.88%
Nov-12	224	2496	208.00	79.68%
Dec-12	230	2529	210.75	82.06%
Jan-13	Expected DA from January 2013

Month	Base Year 2001 = 100	Total of 12 Months	Twelve monthly Average	% increase over 115.76 for   DA	DA announced or  will be announced
Jul-12	212	2414	201.17	73.78%	72%
Aug-12	214	2434	202.83	75.22%	82%
Sep-12	215	2452	204.33	76.51%
Oct-12	217	2471	205.92	77.88%
Nov-12	227	2499	208.25	79.90%
Dec-12	227	2529	210.75	82.06%
Jan-13	Expected DA from January 2013

Hence, it is also clear that expectation of increase in DA from January, 2013 will not cross 9%.

PIB Release:

Ministry of Labour & Employment 30-November, 2012

Consumer Price Index Numbers for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) October 2012

The All-India CPI-IW for October, 2012 rose by 2 points and pegged at 217 (two hundred and seventeen). On 1-month percentage change, it increased by 0.93 per cent between September and October compared with 0.51 per cent between the same two months a year ago. 

The largest upward contribution to the change in current index came from food items which increased by 0.43 per cent, contributing 0.45 percentage points to the total change. At item level, largest upward pressure came from Rice, Wheat & Wheat Atta, Milk, Tea (readymade), Snack Saltish, Snack Sweet, Onion, etc. The other items like Cooking Gas, Electricity Charges, Fire wood, Medicine (Allopathic), Doctors’ Fee, Bus Fare, Cinema Charges, etc. also put upward pressure in total change. 

The largest downward contribution to the change in current index came from Oils and Fats with a decline of 1.08 per cent, contributing (-) 0.10 percentage points to the total change. The main downward pressure came from Groundnut Oil, Coconut Oil, Vanaspati Ghee and Palm Oil. 

The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-IW stood at 9.60 per cent for October, 2012 as compared to 9.14 per cent for the previous month and 9.39 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at 9.91 per cent against 11.00 per cent of the previous month and 8.72 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year. 

At centre level, Monger Jamalpur and Siliguri recorded the largest increase of 6 points each followed by Labac Silchar, Guntur, Salem, Jharia, Coimbatore, Sholapur, Jalpaiguri, Kodarma, Mariani Jorhat, Bengluru and Tripura (4 points each). Among others, 3 points rise was registered in 7 centres followed by 2 points in 21 centres and 1 point in 11 centres. Hubli Dharwar centre reported a decline of 4 points followed by Goa with 3 points, Chennai and Varanasi with 2 points each and other 6 centres registered a fall of 1 point. Rest of the 16 centres’ indices remained stationary. 

The indices of 38 centres are above All-India Index and other 39 centres’ indices are below national average. Bokaro’s index remained at par with all-India index. 

The next index of CPI-IW for the month of November, 2012 will be released on Monday, December 31, 2012. 

*****

PIB 

(Release ID :89744)